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Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Trade Deficit


by Calculated Risk on 7/06/2022 09:02:00 PM

o At 8:15 AM ET, The ADP Employment Report for June will NOT be released.

“ADP Research Institute (ADPRI) and the Stanford Digital Economy Lab (the “Lab”) announced they will retool the ADP National Employment Report (NER) methodology to provide a more robust, high-frequency view of the labor market and trajectory of economic growth. In preparation for the changeover to the new report and methodology, ADPRI will pause issuing the current report and has targeted August 31, 2022 …”

o At 8:30 AM, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 225 thousand down from 231 thousand last week.

o Also at 8:30 AM, Trade Balance report for May from the Census Bureau. The consensus is the trade deficit to be $84.9 billion. The U.S. trade deficit was at $87.1 billion the previous month.

On COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths):

COVID MetricsNowWeek
AgoGoalPercent fully Vaccinated66.9%—>=70.0%1Fully Vaccinated (millions)222.3—>=2321New Cases per Day3106,178108,391<=5,0002Hospitalized3?28,10126,543<=3,0002Deaths per Day326734<=5021 Minimum to achieve “herd immunity” (estimated between 70% and 85%).
2my goals to stop daily posts,
37-day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths
? Increasing 7-day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths

? Goal met.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7-day average (line) of deaths reported.

Average daily deaths bottomed in July 2021 at 214 per day.

ISM(R) Services Index Decreased to 55.3% in June, Employment Contracted

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