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Thursday: Existing Home Sales, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg

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by Calculated Risk on 1/19/2022 07:10:00 PM

Thursday:
o At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 230 thousand initial claims.

o Also at 8:30 AM, the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for January. The consensus is for a reading of 23.0, up from 15.4.

o At 10:00 AM, Existing Home Sales for December from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 6.45 million SAAR, down from 6.46 million. Housing economist Tom Lawler expects the NAR to report 6.33 million SAAR.

On COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths):

COVID Metrics
Now
Week
Ago
Goal
Percent fully Vaccinated
63.1%

>=70.0%1
Fully Vaccinated (millions)
209.5

>=2321
New Cases per Day3
755,095
763,722
<=5,0002
Hospitalized3?
142,595
125,106
<=3,0002
Deaths per Day3
1,669
1,687
<=502
1 Minimum to achieve “herd immunity” (estimated between 70% and 85%).
2my goals to stop daily posts,
37-day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths
? Increasing 7-day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths
? Goal met.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7-day average (line) of positive tests reported.

The 7-day average for new cases are just below record levels. Hospitalizations are at record levels.
Fortunately, deaths are still only half the previous 7-day average record of 3,421 per day in January 2021.

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