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Q4 GDP Forecasts: Moving Down

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by Calculated Risk on 1/07/2022 03:23:00 PM

From BofA:

Our forecast for retail sales to contract in December led us to lower our 4Q GDP tracking estimate down to 5.5% qoq saar from 6.0% previously. [January 7 estimate]
emphasis added

From Goldman Sachs:

We left our Q4 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +7.0% (qoq ar). [January 6 estimate]

And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2021 is 6.7 percent on January 6, down from 7.4 percent on January 4. [January 6 estimate]

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