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Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate “Declines in December”; Up Sharply Year-over-year

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From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Declines In December
The Dodge Momentum Index fell 3% in December to 166.4 (2000=100), down from the revised November reading of 170.7. The Momentum Index, issued by Dodge Construction Network, is a monthly measure of the initial report for nonresidential building projects in planning, which have been shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year. In December, commercial planning fell 4%, and institutional planning slipped 1%.

Despite these declines, 2021 was a banner year for the Dodge Momentum Index — despite the lingering risks of COVID-19 and low demand for some types of nonresidential buildings. Throughout the year, the overall Momentum Index increased 23%, the strongest annual gain since 2005. Both the commercial and institutional components of the Momentum Index saw similar gains — with their levels of activity reaching 13- and 14-year highs, respectively.
emphasis added Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the Dodge Momentum Index since 2002. The index was at 166.4 in December, down from 170.7 in November.

According to Dodge, this index leads “construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year”.  This index suggested a decline in Commercial Real Estate construction through most of 2021, but a solid pickup in 2022.

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