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Housing: Inventory will Tell the Tale


by Calculated Risk on 11/10/2021 02:01:00 PM

Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Inventory will Tell the Tale


We are being flooded with housing stories. Will house prices decline or will price growth just slow? Does the US have a housing shortage? If mortgage rates rise to 4%, will that “halt the housing market” as Ivy Zelman said on CNBC?

Although my crystal ball is cloudy at this point, I believe inventory will tell the tale. That is why I watch inventory closely. Not just the monthly existing home sales report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) and the monthly new home sales report from the Census Bureau. I also use weekly data from Altos Research (See Altos’ Mike Simonsen’s weekly presentation on YouTube).

And I track inventory and sales for 30+ local markets each month.

My Spidey senses are tingling, however it isn’t obvious why this time – or what the outcome will be.

But I believe one thing is certain: inventory will tell the tale!

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