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Goldman Expects 75bp Rate Hike


by Calculated Risk on 6/13/2022 08:48:00 PM

From Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius

“We have revised our forecast to include 75bp hikes in June and July. This would quickly reset the level of the funds rate at 2.25-2.5%, the FOMC’s median estimate of the neutral rate.”
emphasis added

o At 6:00 AM ET, NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for May.

o At 8:30 AM, The Producer Price Index for May from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.8% increase in PPI, and a 0.6% increase in core PPI.

On COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths):

COVID MetricsNowWeek
AgoGoalPercent fully Vaccinated66.8%—>=70.0%1Fully Vaccinated (millions)221.7—>=2321New Cases per Day3?103,82199,621<=5,0002Hospitalized321,74622,956<=3,0002Deaths per Day3?276266<=5021 Minimum to achieve “herd immunity” (estimated between 70% and 85%).
2my goals to stop daily posts,
37-day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths
? Increasing 7-day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths

? Goal met.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7-day average (line) of deaths reported.New cases have quadrupled from the recent low. Deaths are now increasing.

Average daily deaths bottomed in July 2021 at 214 per day.

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