by Calculated Risk on 10/31/2021 08:11:00 AM
Expectations are the FOMC will announce the tapering of assets purchases at the meeting this week.
From Goldman Sachs:
Analysts will also be looking for comments on inflation and possible rate hikes in 2022. Goldman Sachs now expects two rates hikes next year:
Note: No projections will be released at this meeting. However, for review, here are the September FOMC projections.
Early Wall Street forecasts are for GDP to increase at a 5% to 6% annual rate in Q4 that would put Q4-over-Q4 at around 5.0% to 5.2% – so the FOMC projections for 2021 are now a little on the high side compared to Wall Street.
1 Projections of change in real GDP and inflation are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated.
2 Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated.
The decline in the unemployment rate depends on both job growth, and the participation rate. A strong labor market will probably encourage people to return to the labor force, and the improvements in the unemployment rate might be slower than some expect.
As of September 2021, PCE inflation was up 4.4% from September 2020. This is just above the top end of the projected range for Q4.
PCE core inflation was up 3.6% in September year-over-year.