Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller National Index up 18.8% Year-over-year in November
Excerpt: This graph below shows existing home months-of-supply (inverted, from the NAR) vs. the seasonally adjusted month-to-month price change in the Case-Shiller National Index (both since January 1999 through November 2021).
In November, the months-of-supply was at 2.1 months, and the Case-Shiller National Index (SA) increased 1.14% month-over-month. The black arrow points to the November 2021 dot. In the December existing home sales report, the NAR reported months-of-supply decreased to a record low 1.8 months in December.
We are seeing the expected deceleration in house price growth, and this trend will probably continue for at least a few more months. My sense is the Case-Shiller National annual growth rate of 19.99% in August was probably the peak YoY growth rate, however, since the normal level of inventory is probably in the 4 to 6 months range – we’d have to see a significant increase in inventory to sharply slow price increases, and that is why I’m focused on inventory!emphasis added