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Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 19.7% year-over-year in May

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by Calculated Risk on 7/26/2022 09:10:00 AM

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for May (“May” is a 3-month average of March, April and May prices).

This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index.

From S&P: S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller Index Reports Annual Home Price Gain Of 19.7% In May

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census
divisions, reported a 19.7% annual gain in May, down from 20.6% in the previous month. The 10-City
Composite annual increase came in at 19.0%, down from 19.6% in the previous month. The 20-City
Composite posted a 20.5% year-over-year gain, down from 21.2% in the previous month.

Tampa, Miami, and Dallas reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities in May.
Tampa led the way with a 36.1% year-over-year price increase, followed by Miami with a 34.0%
increase, and Dallas with a 30.8% increase. Four of the 20 cities reported higher price increases in the
year ending May 2022 versus the year ending April 2022.

Before seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a 1.5% month-over-month increase in
May, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted increases of 1.4% and 1.5%, respectively.

After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 1.0%, and
the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted increases of 1.3%.

In May, all 20 cities reported increases before and after seasonal adjustments.

“Housing data for May 2022 continued strong, as price gains decelerated slightly from very high levels,”
says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P DJI. “The National Composite Index rose by 19.7%
for the 12 months ended May, down from April’s 20.6% year-over-year gain. We see a similar pattern in
the 10-City Composite (up 19.0% in May vs. 19.6% in April) and in the 20-City Composite (+20.5% vs.
+21.2%). Despite this deceleration, growth rates are still extremely robust, with all three composites at
or above the 98th percentile historically
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index is up 1.3% in May (SA).

The Composite 20 index is up 1.3% (SA) in May.

The National index is 60% above the bubble peak (SA), and up 1.0% (SA) in May. The National index is up 119% from the post-bubble low set in February 2012 (SA).

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in all three indices.

The Composite 10 SA is up 19.0% year-over-year. The Composite 20 SA is up 20.5% year-over-year.

The National index SA is up 19.7% year-over-year.

Price increases were slightly lower than expectations. I’ll have more later.

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