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Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 19.2% year-over-year in January

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by Calculated Risk on 3/29/2022 09:16:00 AM

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for January (“January” is a 3-month average of November, December and January prices).

This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index.

From S&P: S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller Index Reports 19.2% Annual Home Price Gain to Start 2022

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census
divisions, reported a 19.2% annual gain in January, up from 18.9% in the previous month. The 10-City
Composite annual increase came in at 17.5%, up from 17.1% in the previous month. The 20-City
Composite posted a 19.1% year-over-year gain, up from 18.6% in the previous month.

Phoenix, Tampa, and Miami reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities in January.
Phoenix led the way with a 32.6% year-over-year price increase, followed by Tampa with a 30.8%
increase and Miami with a 28.1% increase. Sixteen of the 20 cities reported higher price increases in
the year ending January 2022 versus the year ending December 2021.

Before seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted an 1.1% month-over-month increase in
January, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted increases of 1.4%.

After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 1.6%, and
the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted increases of 1.8%.

In January, all 20 cities reported increases before and after seasonal adjustments.

“Home price changes in January 2022 continued the strength we had observed for much of the prior
year,” says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P DJI. “The National Composite Index recorded a
gain of 19.2% for the 12 months ended in January 2022; the 10- and 20-City Composites rose 17.5%
and 19.1%, respectively. All three composites reflect a small acceleration of price growth for January
2022.

“Last fall we observed that home prices, although continuing to rise quite sharply, had begun to
decelerate. Even that modest deceleration was on pause in January. The 19.2% year-over-year change
for January was the fourth-largest reading in 35 years of history.”
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index is up 1.4% in January (SA).

The Composite 20 index is up 1.4% (SA) in January.

The National index is 54% above the bubble peak (SA), and up 1.1% (SA) in January. The National index is up 108% from the post-bubble low set in February 2012 (SA).

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in all three indices.

The Composite 10 SA is up 17.5% year-over-year. The Composite 20 SA is up 19.1% year-over-year.

The National index SA is up 19.2% year-over-year.

Price increases were above expectations. I’ll have more later.

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